Forecast Modeling of the Development of the Credit and Croudfunding Market in the Conditions of Increasing the Key Rate of the Bank of Russia

Abstract

When creating business projects, the choice of a source of financing is one of the most pressing problems. Until recently, a bank loan was one of the most common methods of financing, but it had a number of disadvantages, which were expressed in the high cost of the loan and increased requirements for its collateral. Today, in the context of an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, loans have become less attractive for business, and therefore entrepreneurs are increasingly turning to other ways to raise funds for their projects. The purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between an increase in the key rate and the development of the financial services market. To achieve this goal, the work uses general scientific and special research methods: historical and logical method – when studying the indicators of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the volume of credit and crowdfunding transactions; method of synthesis and systematicity – in the study of the essential characteristics of crowdfunding, crowdlending and crowdinvesting; exponential smoothing method – for making a forecast of the growth of the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in future periods based on historical data and calculating the range of the confidence interval - the error corridor within which, with a given probability, the forecast should come true; abstract-logical and analytical methods – for theoretical generalization and drawing conclusions. The article assesses the essential characteristics and level of development of crowdfunding, crowdlending, crowdinvesting and other investment instruments in Russia. A forecast has been developed for the likelihood of the key rate influencing the volume of loans issued and the volume of crowdfunding transactions in future periods using exponential smoothing, which makes it possible to simulate the development of events within the probability corridor with 95% accuracy. For this purpose, the functions of the FORECAST.ETS and FORECAST.ETS CONFINT programs were used, in which the following parameters were set: forecast completion date; confidence interval; seasonality (average value of the key rate for the quarter). It has been proven that the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has a significant impact on the level of entrepreneurial activity in the country. The authors’ conclusions presented in the article can be used in the activities of the Central Bank when developing monetary policy.