Scenario Modeling of the Development of Cross-Border Economic Cooperation in the Frontier Regions of the Russian Federation

Abstract

In the context of Russia's geoeconomic pivot to the East and a shift in the center of gravity of cooperation towards Asia, the effective spatial organization of border regions is becoming a key factor in national security and economic development. This article analyzes key indicators for six border regions of Russia in four aspects: indicators of expanding the scale of cross-border cooperation among frontier regions, indicators of increasing economic contacts in frontier border regions, indicators of improving the institutional environment for interaction in frontier border regions, indicators of improving the socio-economic environment in frontier border regions (the Altai Republic, the Trans-Baikal Territory, the Primorye Territory, the  Khabarovsk Territory, the Amur Region, and the Jewish Autonomous Region). The author explores the current state and dynamics of development of cross-border economic cooperation in frontier regions. A three-stage algorithm for classifying each region according to various scenario models has been developed, with five scenario models identified (trade and logistics, resources and raw materials, industry and location, innovation and technology, infrastructure and services). Given regional heterogeneity, differences in implementation timelines, multifunctional infrastructure, and the availability of various resources, this article demonstrates the possibility of combining multiple scenarios within a single region.