Economic Security of Research and Development in the Pharmaceutical Industry: Modeling a Tokenized Ecosystem

Abstract

The relevance of the research is determined by the challenges faced by the pharmaceutical industry in the context of ensuring the economic security of research and development of medicines. High capital intensity, long development cycles in conditions of geopolitical instability and limited access to international financial resources dictate the need to search for fundamentally new, sustainable financing models. A theoretical analysis of the problem field has revealed the key limitations of the traditional, oligopolized venture financing model: capital concentration, lack of transparency of management, high liquidity premium and risks of dilution of the investor share. Taken together, these factors constrain innovation potential and create threats to strategic autonomy. As an alternative, the concept of a tokenized ecosystem based on blockchain is analyzed, which is theoretically capable of diversifying risks and reducing the cost of attracted capital. The empirical analysis includes the development of an original economic and mathematical model of comparative efficiency that integrates the methodology of discounted cash flows and real options to take into account the specifics of clinical research phases. The model allows quantifying the impact of tokenization on key financial parameters. The results of the study demonstrate the qualitative superiority of the proposed model: calculations based on a numerical example show an increase in risk-adjusted return for an investor by 82 % and a decrease in the cost of capital for a project compared to traditional venture financing. The data obtained proves that the main economic effect of tokenization is not to change the fundamental cost of a successful drug, but to structurally reduce the liquidity premium and provide investors with an early exit option, which creates a reliable mechanism for strengthening the economic security of pharmaceutical research in Russia. The paradox of pharmaceutical R&D financing is that the fundamental cost of a successful drug is objective and does not depend on the method of financing, but it is the investment mechanisms that determine how many projects will get a chance to be implemented.