Modeling the Random Component of the Campaigning Process
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52575/2687-0932-2025-52-2-391-399Keywords:
model, system, Markov random process, campaigning, probability, applicant, Poisson flow, matrix, solution of the equationAbstract
Campaigning is one of the most important issues in social processes. The relevance of this problem rises with the increase in the complexity of the tasks facing modern society. The purpose of this article is to develop a mathematical model of campaigning. The novelty of the work lies in taking into account the random component in the differential equation of the process under consideration. An additive model based on the differential equation of mobilization has been developed, taking into consideration the random component. The solution of this equation in steady and unsteady modes is shown, taking into account the nonrandom and random components of propaganda. To explain the proposed method, a specific numerical example of two universities campaigning for future applicants is considered. The method developed in the article has sufficient simplicity of implementation and does not require the use of numerical methods for solving stochastic differential equations. It allows us to explore various tasks in the social sphere (expanding content in social networks, collecting taxes, creating a reserve fund, appealing for students to study, electioneering, involving the population in eliminating the consequences of emergency situations, etc.).
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