A Two-Component Method for Assessing Regional Shock Resistance: Resistance and Recoverability
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52575/2687-0932-2026-53-2-265-274Keywords:
shock resistance, resistance, recoverability, regional economy, assessment method, two-component assessment, business adaptability, budget sustainabilityAbstract
A two-component method for assessing regional shock resistance is presented, separately measuring resistance (the ability to withstand a shock, the depth of decline) and recoverability (the ability to return to the pre-crisis level). The assessment is carried out across three subsystems: “Business Adaptability”, “Population Adaptability”, and “Budget Sustainability”. For each subsystem, a set of indicators based on regularly published data from Rosstat and EMISS has been formed. A procedure has been developed to convert multidirectional indicators into a unidirectional scale, where an increase in value always indicates higher resilience. Algorithms for calculating resistance and recoverability coefficients are proposed, including modifications for indicators that may take negative values (net financial result, budget balance). Aggregation of partial indicators into block indices has been performed using the geometric mean, which reduces sensitivity to outliers. The method allows not only quantitative measurement of the depth of decline in the shock year and the completeness of subsequent recovery but also identification of “weak links” within each of the three subsystems. In contrast to existing approaches that either mix resistance and recoverability into a single integrated indicator or require complex econometric procedures, the proposed toolkit has been designed for operational use by regional authorities for diagnostics and the development of differentiated anti-crisis measures. The author suggests that further research may be focused on potential testing of this method on the data from the Central Federal District regions concerning their response to the shocks of 2020 and 2022.
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