Typology of Regional Trajectories for Achieving National Development Goals in Russia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52575/2687-0932-2023-50-1-5-17Keywords:
socio-economic development, region, target indicator, trend, cluster analysis, dendrogram, spatial autocorrelation, Russian FederationAbstract
The aim of the study is to identify groups of Russian regions with different types of trajectories for achieving national development goals for each indicator and for the entire set of indicators. The initial data are taken from the annex to the government document “Unified Plan for Achieving the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2024 and for the Planning Period up to 2030”. According to the features of the trajectories of achieving indicators in the region, ascending, descending and sideways trends are determined. A measure of the distance between regions in the multidimensional space of all indicators is proposed. Using the author's algorithm for grouping regions, two types of multidimensional trajectory have been identified. The distribution of regions into two types has formed a specific territorial structure in the form of a western and eastern zone of the second type, separated by a space of the first type and partially outlined by fragments of this space along the state border of Russia. The problem regions are identified and the features of spatial autocorrelation of regions are determined. The types of regional trajectories allow us to assess the future heterogeneity of the Russian socio-economic space, which will be formed as a result of the implementation of national development goals by 2030. The results obtained can be used to adjust national goals and monitor the implementation of the schedule for achieving the goals. Seven directions of further research are proposed.
Acknowledgements
The study was carried out at the expense of the state task (topic registration No. AAAA21-121012190018-2).
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