Methods of mathematical analysis and forecasting employment assessment and employment opportunities for graduates of educational institutions

Abstract

The novelty of the study lies in the development of a qualitatively new approach to the assessment of personnel potential, based on methods of assessment and forecasting of personnel. The aim of the study is to form analytics in the context of different types of enterprises/industries/regions, which allows to develop qualitative recommendations for the development of professional staff in one or another direction, for the development of social and service infrastructure in the region to retain professional staff. The relevance of the work is the structuring of the issue of personnel training in educational institutions and the possibility of controlling (predicting) the employment of graduates in enterprises as an important element of human capital. The relevance of this issue is obvious, due to the possibility of identifying quantitative indicators and revealing its dependence on the main factors of influence. The paper presents two mathematical models of employment forecasting system. It performs a mathematical analysis of the employment of graduates of any level of educational institutions (colleges, higher education institutions, advanced training courses, etc.) and predicts the demand for these graduates by enterprises in the region/industry/country. The result of the work is the development of mathematical apparatus necessary to perform full-fledged analysis and further prediction (demand) of the specialty (program/course) at the labor market, both in a particular region and in the country as a whole and the construction of demographic models. The use of mathematical apparatus will allow potential users (educational institutions, employers and other interested parties) to obtain a tool and quantitative indicators for further planning of specialists training and development of educational programs.